DFS VALUE PICKS
Updated: Mar 5, 2021
Here is my daily fantasy value picks for the upcoming week. In this edition, I am only selecting from the Sunday Day games so no Sunday night or Monday night matchups. Remember, you only receive $60,000 for a full 9 roster spots, leaving an average of less than $6700 per player, so I am trying to give people who are below that number (or lower than the positional average in the case of QB’s) but who I think will have a strong return on investment.
QB Ryan Tannehill TEN $7400
Sun 1PM ET Vs. MIN
Russel Wilson is the most expensive QB this week at $8700. Tannehill has been solid over the first 2 weeks of the season, especially in the redzone. Derrick Henry has not scored yet, and it seems Tennessee believes they can win the game by throwing the ball. Tannehill hasn’t been getting the yards, but he is averaging 3 touchdowns a game making his fantasy value worth the lack of yards. The biggest help he will receive comes in his opponent, the Minnesota Vikings who have looked like they are competing with the Jets for biggest disgrace to the NFL. Tannehill is solid and cheap at this asking price.
Stack option: Jonnu Smith TE $5600
RB Joshua Kelley LAC $5900
Sun 4PM ET Vs. CAR
The most expensive RB in this category is still the injured CMC at $10000, but the most expensive active player is Zeke at $9000. Kelley and Ekeler saw about a 50/50 split in snaps last week, and Kelley ended up rushing the ball 23 times and receiving twice compared to 16 rushes for Ekeler. Kelley is playing like their bruiser back and more likely to get the redzone touches than Ekeler. He gets enough work without touchdowns to have at least decent fantasy outputs, but a touchdown brings him up into great games especially for the asking price he is currently at. Justin Herbert is starting this week, and they are going against the Carolina Panthers, the 32nd ranked defense to opposing running backs. The Chargers don't fully trust their rookie QB and are going to hand the rock off as much as they can. I also anticipate the Chargers to be winning most of the game, so they'll try to run the clock down early and for as long as possible.
WR D.K. Metcalf SEA $6500
Sun 4PM ET Vs. Dal
Deandre Hopkins is the most expensive option $8500. I know this isn’t some sort of amazing value selection, but he is under the average needed for lineup and his matchup this week is amazing. Plus, it doesn’t hurt that he is clearly the deep ball target to this years MVP front runner, Russel Wilson. Metcalf, last week, made reigning DPOY look like a high school player on an impressive deep ball. Both touchdowns D.K. has this season have come on the deep ball, and I don’t see his streak stopping soon. If he doesn’t catch a 40 yard touchdown, he is still the favorite to target in the redzone due to his size and physicality. The biggest help this week comes from the Dallas defense being injured and weak at stopping the pass, ranking 26th against opponent wide receivers. With Seattle allowing the most passing yards this game, it will be a shoot out and Russel is better suited for a shoot out.
Stack: Russel Wilson QB SEA $8700 while Russ is over budget in this scenario he has shown he's worth whatever the asking price may be.
TE Jonnu Smith TEN $5600
Sun 1PM ET Vs. MIN
Darren Waller is the most expensive TE for $6600. For much of the same reasons Tannehill is a good value, Smith is an even better one. Over the course of the first 2 weeks he has caught 3 TD’s and shown he is the redzone threat for Ryan Tannehill. Smith is a must start in season long fantasy and for this price it's just disrespectful. Minnesota is a sorry defense, and Smith is turning into one of the premiere tight ends of this league. If I had to select only one between Tannehill and Smith, I am picking Smith 9/10 times.
Flex Jerick McKinnon RB SF $5700
Sun 1PM ET Vs. NYG
Can you name one solid player that wasn’t hurt last week for the 49ers? I know I can’t. It seemed as though every ball handler besides their center is now officially out this week leaving only McKinnon as anyone who is remotely solid. The already run heavy team is having Nick Mullens as their starting QB which does not bode well for the 49ers passing attack. Between Mullens and McKinnon, McKinnon should have more trust with the ball in his hands, and against an already weak Giants defense, his usage alone should have him in the top ranked fantasy RBs this week. This is an easy pick up and a good place to fill in both season long leagues and daily leagues.
Def IND Colts $4800
Sun 4PM ET Vs. NYJ
They are the 3rd most expensive defense, but since defenses are so cheap splurging here isn’t a true splurge. They are the top ranked defense by yards and are going against another team who, to put it lightly, has been struggling. The Jets are extremely banged up with none of their starting receivers and the eternal Frank Gore having to be the starting RB. If they score more than 10 points it will be a moral win for their team. Colts should absolutely dominate this game, and my only worry is they stuff the Jets so well, they are unable to get any turnovers to score more points.