DFS VALUE PICKS
Updated: Mar 5, 2021
Like always, the italicized players are the most expensive in that category and the bold and italicized are different options to pick or possible stacks. We use FanDuel prices and they give us a salary of $60,000 for 9 total spots. Every pick I choose, except quarterback, will fall under $6700. I make this list because these are people who I believe will give you the most bang for your buck. I don’t think these are the only players you should have, but they will be good to round out your roster after selecting the more expensive stars. Star players are stars but they are more expensive and everyone is looking to grab those players. The approach you need to take when drafting in DFS is that of Moneyball, who is cheap and will get you the farthest. I try my best to make that possible.
QB - Cam Newton $7600 (NE vs. HOU)
Aaron Rodgers $9000
Stack option: None there is not enough talent on the Patriots receiving core to have a meaningful stack. They also run the ball too heavily to have a wide receiver be a real factor.
My personal favorite DFS player this year has been Justin Herbert, but it looks like FanDuel has finally gotten wise and started charging $8500, the second most this week. Unfortunately, Herbert is too expensive this week for me to sing his praises which leads me to Cam Newton who faces the worst run defense in the league in Houston. Cam Newton, in my opinion, just does not have the ability to pass efficiently anymore. That could be because he has no one to pass to, or he could have just lost the touch. I select him here because he has 9 rushing TD’s this season, and that is where most of his value has been coming in the terms of fantasy football. I also believe outside of Patriots fans, he will be undrafted in most competitions. I will not lie, in regular leagues I would be scared to start Cam Newton, but this is gambling, no matter what the courts have ruled.
RB - Kalen Ballage $5800 (LAC vs. NYJ)
Dalvin Cook $10,500
More expensive option: Nehemiah Hines $6100 he has been a target monster as of late and seemingly taken over running duties as well going against GB's 30th ranked defense against RBs.
While revenge is best served cold, I think Ballage will be content with the nice 75 degrees in Los Angeles. He has been named the primary back for the Chargers, and his volume the past 2 weeks should come as no surprise. The Jets are so bad it is unfathomable and to keep a coach who is best described as out of his element this long can only point to tanking. Of course against the Jets I want to pick everyone on the Chargers, but for the value, and the revenge, Ballage is the best option and I believe the most sure thing this week. My only fear is that he will be drafted highly due to the perfect storm he has ahead of him.
WR - Allen Lazard $5500 (GB vs. IND)
Devante Adams $9500
More expensive option: Justin Jefferson $6700 he goes against Dallas and has 4 games over 100 yards and 2 of those are over 150.
The last time Lazard played, it was against the 7th ranked defense vs WRs and he got 23.4 FanDuel points. This week he goes against the 7th ranked defense vs WRs in Indianapolis, a very stout defense this year. The biggest factor in this game is Aaron Rodgers, a phenomenal talent unlike any other. There is no doubt his favorite target is Devante Adams, who will be the main focus for this Colts defense. This leaves Allen Lazard to go against their worse defender giving him more of a chance to breakout in his first game back. The downside is he is still questionable as of right now and it is not 100% that he will play.
TE - TJ Hockenson $6000 (DET vs. CAR)
Mark Andrews $6500
More Expensive option: Who knows honestly the Tight ends have been such a shit show I don't know how to predict who will be a factor week in week out.
Hockenson had his first game under 7 points last week but this week Kenny Golladay and Danny Amendola are out and Matt Stafford is listed as questionable which means a seriously increased role for TJ. He is the most consistent player in the NFL, fantasy wise and that’s all we need from the TE position this year.
Flex - Duke Johnson RB $6000 (HOU vs. NE)
Dalvin Cook $10,500
More expensive option: Terry Mclaurin $7300 he is very talented and that’s all I should have to say but he’s also going against the 26th defense this week.
Even after last week, I have full faith in Duke Johnson. He is still seeing a 90%+ snap count and nearly all the RB attempts. I believe last week he suffered from just a poor game all around by both teams. I mean the final was 10-7 after a lightning delay. The whole game was a mess and shouldn’t be indicative of what Duke is able to do. Even through the the difficult matchup this week, I believe his volume alone should mean a good day.
Def - Green Bay Packers vs. IND $4200
More expensive option: Dolphins $4800 they go against Denver which is the worst offense in the league.
Big Phil loves to throw interceptions and loves to make those interceptions into pick-sixes. The Packers are a middle of the road defense but the Indianapolis colts offense isn’t great at scoring. Whenever they have a game above 30 points its because the defense/ special teams got 1-2 TDS that day. I honestly have a gut feeling about this game and it's hard to say no to Big Phil turning the ball over.
Total Spent (using only value picks): $35,100
AVG Price Per Pick: $5850
Money Remaining: $24,900
AVG. Price left on 3 remaining roster spots: $8300